that may apply to most of Iraq.
In the last 48 hours, the local warlords who controlled Mogadishu have been pushed out of the city. An Islamic army has taken charge of Somalia's capital, and now claims to control the area, up to 60 miles outside of the city limits.
For 15 years the warlords have fought over, and controlled various parts of the country and city. While international institutions, and world powers talked of liberty, democracy and freedom, the various factions held on to their territory, and fought among themselves. Somalia was, and still is, a failed state.
The situation in Mogadishu didn't change much from 1995 to 2000 to 2003, but starting in the last couple of years, some order and services started to be put into place. A few schools opened, medical clinics started to serve the population, and even courts (or a sort) started to function. These were not the actions of the warlords, who cared only about the accumulation of wealth and power for themselves, or of outside governments and institutions. These first steps of rebuilding society were undertaken by the Islamic Courts Union.
These limited steps have paid a huge benefit to the ICU.
In only a few months, the Islamic Courts Union has been able to do what no one else has been able to do in the last 15 years, get the warlords out of the city. For the first time in over a decade there is a group that the people of Mogadishu see as being interested in more than the accumulation of personal power and wealth. It is the support of a significant portion of the people that has enabled the Islamic Courts Union to finally clear this city of it's fueding warlords.
This doesn't mean that the people of Mogadishu fully support the Islamic Courts Union. This is not a nice group, it is thought to have ties to Al Quada, believes in Sharia law, and is in effect the Somali version of the Taliban. In Mogadishu there have been some protest against their victory, but at this point they appear limited in nature.
Like the Taliban, their rise to power appeared sudden, and only after years of civil conflict, and like the Taliban, I suspect that we will find that the primary reason for their ascendance to power was the populations wish for some form (any form) of order and stability. The people dreamed of the limited public services the ICU were able to provide. They now look for a little stability after years of strife and war. For years they saw no improvement in their lives, while they may hope for liberty, democracy and freedom, they are now just happy to have stability that the ICU may be able to provide.
This is how Afghanistan became home for Bin Laden and Al Qaeda. The people of Afghanistan are religious and conseravive, but it never appeared that a majority wanted an harsh theocratic Islamic state. But years of war, both revolutionary and civil, left them with a willingness to accept Tabalan rule in exchange for stability.
Now look at Iraq.
A nation that is now enduring years on instability. A nation where the situation is just getting worse. There are kidnapping on a grand scale,road side executions, drive by shootings, random bombings, and a dramatic decline in public services, a nonstop parade of personal loses. Power levels are less that before the war started, as is water service, sewer, oil exports, job opportunity and almost every other standard of living consideration.
Those who can leave are, and those who have to stay behind suffer. At some point, and I suspect some point relatively soon, They too will start to embrace the idea that stability is far more important than liberty, democracy and freedom. The logical end is yet another Taliban style Islamic state. Except in Iraq, unlike Somalia or Afghanistan, we will have a state that will be, with time, very rich.
The trouble that a rich theocratic Islamic state could create is frightening to consider.
And is something that our nation's actions created.
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Iraq Mogadishu
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