The new Iraqi Constitution, a Pending Disaster?

The Sunni leadership doesn't like the news Constitution. They fear that the way it has been crafted Iraq will consist of a oil rich Kurdish enclave in the north, a oil rich Shia enclave in the south and east, and a poor and powerless sunni belt in the middle. The end result is, the Sunni's, who ignored that last elections, are now motivated to participate.

Sunni political leaders had already rejected it and vowed to rally support among their people to vote down the measure. "I will urge everybody to go and register for the referendum, and go and vote," said Salih Al-Mutlaq, a senior Sunni lawmaker.

In the long run, having the Sunni's succed and getting this version blocked, and going back into committee to get a new version may be the better option.

But even if Sunni voters do register and turn out, there's no guarantee they will be able to defeat a referendum. Talal al-Gaaod, a Sunni businessman in Jordan with close ties to Sunni tribes, doesn't believe there are enough votes to carry the necessary two-thirds "no" majority in three of Iraq's provinces. And if the current draft passes? "More chaos," he says. In fact, disturbing signs are already emerging of a violent uptick in the kinds of sectarian tensions many Iraqis fear could lead to civil war.

A lose, lose situation may now exist, with civil war in our path; and starting back at ground zero on the other.