Patey's warning was contained in his final diplomatic cable, leaked to the BBC, before leaving office last week, the BBC reported.
"The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy," Patey wrote.
"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq -- a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror -- must remain in doubt."
We now have another voice who has detailed knowledge about the area confirming that the path we have chosen will most likely fail. Another expert telling his boss that what we are doing is not going to work, and I don't expect to hear anyone from Downing Street or the Bush administration to say anything other than 'stay the course'.
It doesn't appear to matter to them that this course is leading to failure.
UPDATE
Even senior US officers are talking civil war.
Tags
Iraq Civil War
4 comments:
The Kurds must be licking their chops and, in turn, the Turks.
Yep, it is already getting nasty up there.
The Kurdish terrorist (supported by the Kurds we need on our side in Iraq) have killed well over a dozen Turks in the last month, and Turkey has made it clear, it stops, or they invade Iraq.
To make things more interesting, a new man has just been apointed head of the Turkish armed forces, and he is reported to be quite the hardliner.
Just more fun in SW Asia.
Thanks for the comments, and your blog is a blast to read.
John
Meanwhile the peons in the blogosphere have been talking about the civil war in Iraq for months. There are plenty of us out here who can plainly see the emperor has no clothes.
"There they go and I must hasten to follow, for I am their leader."
Which admin brain trust was it who said that there isn't a civil war because there are sections of Iraq that are peaceful.
By that standard, the American Civil War was never one. Guess we should be rewriting our text books?
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