"Hezbollah attacked Israel. Hezbollah started the crisis, and Hezbollah suffered a defeat in this crisis,"
Again proving that he does possess a total lack of understanding any complex situation. Hezbollah's survival is it's victory. However, if you want to look a more tangible indicators that clearly indicate how this conflict should be regarded: on the last day of combat, Hezbollah fires more rockets into Israel that on any previous day, and the two missing Israel soldiers are still missing.
Bush's statement was both a foolish and stupid thing to say, but there may be good reasons for trying to pretend that Hezbollah lost. There are solid indications that the US was deeply involved in the planning for this event, and looking at a couple of the foundation concepts of the Israel attack, it does appear to have the taint of the current US military thinking.
1. That air power can win a war. We fall into this trap all the time. We are in love with the idea that somehow air power alone can win a war. It is, for the aggressor, a safe way to fight. The unopposed air-forces suffer few losses, and in the era of visuals, the video replays of the attacks are very popular at the press conferences. The harsh reality that we refuse to learn is, air power can be impressive, but is also very limited.
Dug in forces, hidden forces, unidentified forces are left undamaged, and ready to respond. After 30 days of bombing Hezbollah appeared as effective as they did on the first day.
2. That bombing the population will make them rise up against anyone but the people bombing them. The thinking here seemed to be that the non Shia population of Lebanon would be so enraged at the destruction of their power plants, airports, bridges, water works, and roads that they would blame the people who are not bombing them.
A similar theory is regularly floated about Iran. If we destroy the infrastructure, the people will be so mad about their losses that they will ignore who was bombing them, and attack their own government.
The end result is a huge lose for Israel, and if the reports are true that US policy was involved in the planning, an important lesson for the US. It is unclear if the US will actually learn that lesson.
Tags
Lebanon Israel
2 comments:
The Problem.
Not big enough Bombs.
I am reminded of a certain Iraqi Information Minister who said: "They are not in Baghdad. They are not in control of any airport. I tell you this. It is all a lie. They lie. It is a Hollywood movie. You do not believe them."
As Orwell said, you can't tell the pigs from the people.
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