The British authorities have made a number of arrest, disrupting what would have been a major terrorist attack. Early reports indicate that over 20 people have been arrested, and airport security has been radically increased.
There is speculation about who is behind the proposed attack, and what this means in our on going war against a battle tactic. As expected, US officials are already stressing an Al Qaida link. It is possible, but the more likely situation is that these are home grown terrorist. If pressed, I would say the odds are around 40/60.
Right now there appear to be three degrees of Islamic terror groups. The top level would be the major players, Al Qaida and a few other well established and well trained terror groups. This level seems to be inspired by the goal of either an powerful Palestinian state in Palestine, or pushing the west out of the Middle East. The second level are the well led home grown groups. To date, their motivation appears to not pre-date 2002, but is much more a response to the actions of the US and UK in Iraq. Their anger has been stewing for over a thousand days now, and they are trying to find a way to strike back. The third tier would have to be the disenfranchised who are just looking for any means to empower themselves. The joke of a terror cell in Miami is a very good example of this.
I think we will discover that these are home grown terrorist. I will not be surprised to see some ties to Al Qaida, and maybe even some degree of support. I would be surprised if this cell predates our attack of Iraq.
At this point, I do not think that this plot was designed by Al Qaida operatives outside of England. While the scale of the attack and the scope of the attack are hallmarks of the group, the choice of where the attack was to launched from tends to indicate a UK, not a Middle Eastern point of origin for the plot.
The goal was to hit the UK and the US in a join operation, that would infuse another dose of terror into the society. Destroying 10 jets, 3,000 people at one time would do that, but this mission, if it was not a mission driven by people who were already in the UK, would be better launched from a nation not already on high alert.
If it were an Al Qaida plan, crafted in Afghanistan, funded by their sources, I suspect it would launch from Singapore, or Hong Kong, or Bangkok, or another major international gateway that has high levels of service to the US and the UK. The impact on the US and UK would be very similar, and the risks of detection would be much lower.
In a few months we will have a much fuller picture. A year ago the London subway was attacked. This was a home grown group, inspired in part by the attack on Iraq. If this group was home grown, and born after 2002, it is another indicator that our armed intervention in Iraq is not reducing terrorist, but producing them. I would also note that this, like almost all of our victories in the war on terror, was a result of police work, not open combat.
UPDATE
24 Arrested in England
Tags
Al Qaida London
8 comments:
You don't sound like a South Carolinian. I'm very impressed.
I am a Transplant for S. Texas, and California, but have been here most of my life.
wow. thanks john.
:-) t
I blame liberal bloggers and Ned Lamont.
So do I Tim, can't trust any of them
the ? is, are we safer now than we were 5 years ago?
Or, why is it that we quit looking for UBL and now have 150k troops in Iraq?
And a good point, we obviously have done nothing to stem the cause of terrorism (e.g. reworking our foreign policy to inhibit recruitment of these nutjobs).
THX Repubs.
Or, look what happens when you postpone a vacation.
Remember Bush's PDB he got in '01 just b4 911. I bet Blair got a similar one and called off his vacation to deal with the threat; or at least, you know, lead when the attack got busted or, God forbid, was completed.
yeah, you must be a transplant. not accepting your heritage and not standing up for your beleaguered state.
you're either from here or you ain't, partna. ;)
e+
Post a Comment